Now they admit it.... oil will run out in 50 years... so better get that bike tuned up and get pedaling. This is something I've posted about in the past so get ready.
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We are fast approaching that time...This link was posted in the green party community on LJ. We could probably save the shortfall predicted if we stopped playing policeman to the world. We also need to bring back the nationwide 55 speed limit, and make it easier to use public transit, walking, and bicycles. We need integrated systems, bus, shuttles, rail, bike programs, walkable cities.

Welcome to the new normal, as we face the results of our shortsighted political system.

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peak oil

Feb. 10th, 2011 07:18 am
It has been a subject of some posts before... it has been coming and we, as a society have been proceeding with blinders on down our rosy path, figuring that we'd wory about this 'later'... well, later is now... and it is a subject I looked at back in 2005 and 2006.

I remember a conversation I had with an oilman I was introduced to in Bakersfield. He was telling me that the oil company he worked for had said that we were not running out of oil, just running out of cheap oil.  If you haven't noticed, the oil companies have been re-branding themselves as energy companies, they know the oil business is in decline. He was working on making Chevron more concious of waste, he worked to extract every bit of energy out of what the oil company once considered waste. He also worked to utilize techniques to extract oil from fields that had long been abandoned, using steam injection to move heavy crude to the suface.

That time is fast approaching, and the future isn't so bright as we find ourselves without the energy to light the coming darkness. A few things wll change quickly, as gas prices will be the first thing you see rise, forcing changes in how we get around. Next we will see food prices rise as diesel and petroleum based fertilizers become more costly. Say goodbye to those fresh fruit from Chile as the cost becomes prohibitive to ship the thousands of miles they travel. Demand is already on the rise and the markets in energy will flourish, and we won't be in a position to compete as the dollar falls. Right now the dollar is the currency of commerce worldwide, but that may change, and if oil is priced in another currency, we wil see sudden and disruptive events that will shock the average American who has been blissfully living the American dream.

I'm following this story and watching how we face it. I won't have it as bad as some as I don't have to commute to work. I'll give serious thought to wind and solar as these work well in my area. I will continue to work on my bikes. Those in urban areas will be the first to feel the pain, as in the embargo of the 70's, the country had gasoline, while the urban areas had long lines.  I will face this from this point forward and I can see my later years being some hard times. I really feel for the children, as they will see a world in conflict, a world that will become much like as a dystopian  movie, with class warfare, shortages, and survival being the concern of mankind. 

Things can change, but change will be hard, and when facing hard choices people make wrong choices rather than face the truth. We see that now with some in Washington. We can survive, but only if we make the choice to conserve and move to a sustainable lifestyle. All we can do is face the truth and start making adjustments.

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One ex-Shell Oil CEO has predicted $5 a gallon gas by 2012. While some people are scoffing at the idea, I figure it sounds about right. We are in a different world now. I talked to an friend who works for Chevron in Bakersfield and he said there is not really a shortage of oil, just a shortage of cheap oil. He was saying that to get oil is harder, and the quality of crude is not as good as it was in the past. Also, if you really want to do some research Google 'peak oil'.

We are also in a market where China and India are now wanting more oil. When I lived in Long Beach (back in 2003) one of my neighbors was a commodities broker who worked the exchange and his specialty was oil. He said back then that the Chinese were buying futures and were willing to pay 25% more than other buyers for oil. This is probably more the norm today.

We are facing a future where we need to look at alternative means of getting around. I'm into bikes, and my bigest gas guzzler gets 28 mpg. We need to look forward, more public transit, more pedestrian friendly cities, and the end of suburbs and the revitalization of the city core  It will be a change we will face soon enough.

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I'll be sacrificing time for savngs in this age of high oil prices.  I start with a bus ride from Temecula to Corona, a  train from Corona to Santa Ana, another bus from the train station to Civic Center, and a short walk to the office. Total time is a bit over two hours. This does not count the 40 minute drive to the first bus stop. Now I will concentrate on making the time in transit productive or at least enjoyable.

I see this use of public transit being the nexr wave, the new paradigm, more than just being 'green' but part of the new economics. The question will be how many bodies can I move per gallon, at what unit cost per passenger. If I want to make this work even better, intergrate a folding bicycle into the mix. I'm serously thinking of getting rid of one bike and working on getting a folder that can be easily moved from one mode to another,  In ant case, I see that happening within a few months. That will add a bit of physical acyivity to the mix and probably help in my overall health. 

I'm entering the phase of my life when decisions are being made about retirement. I'll have a comfortable amount of money but I will have to conserve that income by any and all means, as increases in income will not match inflation, and yes, we are in a period of inflation even if the 'economists' want t love wuth their heads up their collective arses. 

So, what ar eyou going to do when gas hits $5 or $10 a gallon. It will have a big impact on where you live and where you shop and play. Think about it.



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